Version 2.0 of the presentation (6-22-07)
PowerPoint File and Music (mp3) File (link removed by request 3-20-07) - download to the same folder for the music to play.
Windows Media Player version
Did You Know Sources (Word, PDF)
Did You Know Text (Word, PDF)
Follow-Up Post about Did You Know?/Shift Happens (3-28-07)
Scott McLeod's version (removes my school-specific slides)
My administration asked me if I wanted to speak at one of our beginning of the year faculty meetings. I often provide updates on what's new and different with technology in our building and what teachers need to know to get the year started. But this year I'm really focused on staff development and the "vision" of where we should be headed, so I wanted to do something different. I don't know for sure how it is in your schools, but I imagine they are like mine - a faculty meeting is a horrible place to have the conversations we need to have. In addition, since 49 of my teachers are involved in the staff development described elsewhere on this blog, I felt it would be a waste of time - and possibly counterproductive - to try to discuss anything of substance in the faculty meeting.
So, instead, I decided to take David Warlick up on his idea of telling the new story. I put together a PowerPoint presentation with some (hopefully) thought-provoking ideas. I was hoping by telling some of these "stories" to our faculty, I could get them thinking about - and discussing with each other - the world our students are entering. To get them to really think about what our students are going to need to be successful in the 21st century, and then how that might impact what they do in their classrooms. It would also help the faculty that are not currently participating in my staff development join the conversation.
So I basically said most of the above to the faculty, and then told them that even though I would usually argue that just showing something and not discussing it afterward was a bad idea, that this time - since a meaningful conversation at the end of a long faculty meeting was unlikely - that's what I was going to do. But that I wanted them to hopefully think about this for their own classrooms, and then hold the conversation with each other over the next few days (and hopefully weeks and months and . . .).
I remixed content from David Warlick, Thomas Friedman, Ian Jukes, Ray Kurzweil and others, added some music, and came up with the following presentation. If you want the music, you'll have to download both files (and make sure you put the mp3 file in the same folder as the PowerPoint file so that it can find the music). On a PC, right-click on each and choose Save Target As, on a Mac with a one-button mouse control-click.
Music (mp3) File (music removed by request 3-20-07) (download to the same folder as the PowerPoint for the music to play)
I was very nervous about showing this and how it would go over, but it seemed to have its intended effect (at least initially - we'll see if it really helps generate the on-going conversations we need to have). I would be interested in feedback from anybody who decides to download it.
I wanted to add to this post to address some of the questions I've received via comments and email. Keep those comments comin'!
- "AHS" in the first 8 slides refers to the high school I work at - Arapahoe High School in Centennial, Colorado.
- "First Grader Abby" in slide 72 is indeed my daughter. That gives me even more of a buy-in to address these issues as an educator.
- Since this was originally intended just for my staff meeting - and as the beginning of the slide show indicates I had quite a few things to keep me busy - I didn't write up the sources for the info. I will try to do that this weekend and add it to this post.
- I haven't taken the time yet to figure out the different levels of creative commons licensing, but let's just assign the most permissive one. As far as I'm concerned, as many people as possible should be thinking about and discussing these ideas. You all have permission to use, modify, reuse, etc. anything you'd like. (Although if you find good stuff to add to or replace what's in there, I'd love it if you'd send it my way so that I can add it to mine.) Since I basically stole (ummm, "remixed") all of the ideas from other folks I really don't see what claim I have to all this. As far as giving me "credit," you're welcome to - I assume that will help pay for my daughter's college tuition somehow, right? :-)
- I cringed myself when I uploaded a PowerPoint and a separate music file. Time has been at a premium and PowerPoint was the quickest way to get the text done (and I wasn't thinking about posting it on the web at that point). I did try briefly to capture it to Flash using Wink (free, open-source screen capture software). It captured the slides fine, but I can't figure out a way to add the audio (it just records off of the microphone). I do have Camtasia (not free and open source) at school and I know there are more options, but I didn't have time to explore. I didn't think about exporting the PowerPoint slides as images and then bringing them into Movie Maker. That worked fairly well (although it would've been much simpler if all my slides had been the same length!). So Miguel, here's the Windows Media Player version. Tell your team to thank me.
- As far as "How'd it go?" - I think it did get a lot of my staff thinking about this, but I'm not sure how much of that will survive the beginning of the year craziness. Everyone is so busy getting back into the swing of things that it's easy to settle back into the same old routine and push it to the backs of our minds. I'm hoping that doesn't happen and I at least take some comfort that many of you think it will help you get some conversations started. My principal did say he wanted to show it at Back to School Night to the parents and several teachers are planning on showing it to their students. (Sorry, Molly, you may get to see it again.)
I've now uploaded my sources for the information (Word Format or PDF). Please note that I've changed the following slides because I couldn't confirm some of the information from independent sources. (If you download the PowerPoint or the Windows Media version now, they will include the updated slides.)
- Slide 24 and 25 - My original source indicated 10-14 careers, and I did find that another place on the web. But while both claimed the U.S. Department of Labor as their source, neither linked it to anything. All of my searches there indicate 10-14 jobs by the age of 38, not careers - so I changed the slides to indicate that.
- Slides 27 and 28 - My original source indicated 1 out of 2 workers had been with their employer less than one year, 2 out of 3 less than five years. Again my original source did not link back to the U.S. Department of Labor, and the only other place I found it on the web was from a presentation to the State of Texas by the author of my original source. The searching I did at the Department of Labor indicated 1 out of 4 less than a year, and then 1 out of 2 less than five years, so I changed the slides to reflect that.
- Slide 47 - Changed from 2.4 to 2.7 billion searches a month based an updated statistics on the web.
- Slide 67 - My original source did not provide any source for this claim, and I couldn't find anything definite on the web. So I removed the year from the slide and left it at "Predictions are that ePaper will be cheaper than real paper."
I've received quite a few requests for just the text of this presentation. So here you go:
Also, you can find Scott McLeod's version (removes my school-specific slides) at this post.
I think that you accomplished what you were trying to do with your presentation. I think that everyone was enlighted by the data. I think it might be hard for continuous conversations without someone to stimulate the conversation. I am considering sharing this slideshow with some of my students (slightly modified) to see what their reaction is to the information.ReplyDelete
I am new to the world of Wikis and Blogs having just learned about them this summer from Will Richardson at a regional conference in NYS called High School's New Face. Shame on me for having my head in the sand for so long. I found your presentation to be very powerful - thought provoking and relevant to us all. It is something I think we ALL need to see so that we can start to make "shift happen." I too would like to share it with students to get their reaction - but even more so with those professionals who think that we don't need to change what we do. Thank you!ReplyDelete
I was very impressed with the presentation and thought it was very powerful and thought provoking. I have had several conversations with other staff members who felt the same way. The feelings that I have about the "shift" and from what I have heard from others is a very nervous feeling.ReplyDelete
I was also considering showing a modified version to my classes and discuss what thier thoughts are on the topic.
I just love your blog and read it every time you post. I am so glad you posted this, it is so timely. Our Supt. presented last Jan. at a district staff development day. He based his speech on The World Is Flat. The message was powerful, timely, and needs to be repeated and reflected upon, more than once a year. I will be honored to use something like this in a last class for our summer technology workshop. I hope that is okay with you, and you will get all the credit!! Nice work and thanks for sharing with the world.
Cheryl Oakes, Wells, ME.
This is a fantastic presentation which captures what technology is all about and why we need to support it in education. Thanks you for sharing and may you have many thought provoking conversations!
This is one of my favorite blogs to read. Your powerpoint presentation was brilliant. Thank youReplyDelete
Sargent Park School
Yes, this is though-provoking and a great way to get teachers thinking. Do you have a message board or internal mail service where a conversation can take place? Well done. How did it go?ReplyDelete
I came to this by way of David Warlick's blog and absolutely loved the powerpoint. You've given the teachers you work with and others who have read your blog something that brain research might called priming. I'd love to hear about the staff development you'll be doing this year now that you've got them thinking. Thanks for sharing this!ReplyDelete
I was impressed by the presentation and I find myself thinking about your message as I prepare for a new year. I have passed it on to my colleagues in Iowa and they agree that it is thought provoking and eye opening. Thank you for sharing with us and allowing us to share with others in education.ReplyDelete
Thought provoking and well done. I think something you couldn't get across in a lecture or conversation. Many teachers (people) don't step back to see the "shift" that has happened even in our lifetime. I'd will pass along the link to my colleagues and see what response I get. Thanks for sharing and good luck with your professional development. I'll be reading you to see what comes up.ReplyDelete
Great preso, Karl. Thank you for sharing it. May I have permission to modify, use it and redistribute provided credit is given?ReplyDelete
Director, Instructional Technology
Karl, this is really powerful stuff! Thanks for sharing it. My staff will have a chance to look at it as well. I'll let you know how it goes at the elementary level. Have a great year! - MarkReplyDelete
A few months ago, I would have seen that I had to download both a power point and music to view your presentation optimally and I would have shied away. Today I've developed a new confidence and I'm glad that I observed your presentation. It's truly incredible how music can add power to words. The two media together have caused me to think. Ten years ago, these two media could not be connected together, but as you know we live in a different age. Soon, it won't be acceptable to simply write a book. Because words alone are not as powerful as words and music together. I'm glad that I downloaded your project. You did not just cause professional development to occur in your own school; you caused it to occur on-line. Thank you.ReplyDelete
Andrew makes some interesting points...why don't you export the PowerPoint slides as PNG files, drop them into Photoshop or MovieMaker then add the background sound...and release this as a movie we can all play?ReplyDelete
That's what I'll ask my team to do if you grant rights!! (grin)
Wishing you well,
This is an excellent presentation. Very thought provoking. A bit intimidating to say the least.ReplyDelete
A very powerful presentation that would not have been seen by most of us even three or four years ago. The power of the Web 2.0 is demonstrated once again. I will be sharing a link to your blog entry with many administrators in my district.
Thank you so much for making this presentation available to us.
And may your teachers and especially your students benefit from what you have created.
Very nice, indeed. You were at NECC this year weren't you? :-)ReplyDelete
Sadly, most teachers can't read this article at school, as most schools in this area, at least, block any site with the word blog in the url. Most would agree with your point here but few are likely to change anything as a result.
ANd so we fight the good fight every day in hopes that one day, before it's too late, someone in the right position will finally do what it takes to make a difference.
Thanks for sharing this.
Breathtaking, revealing, fascinating, powerful, stunning. One of the best presentations I have seen in a very long time. Thank you for taking the time to put it together and thank you for sharing it with the world.ReplyDelete
I played your presentation, captured it as a movie then converted it to MP4 at 176x144 so it can play on mobile devices. Your presentation style suits such mobile delivery perfectly.ReplyDelete
Ron - can you make that version available somewhere on the web in case others would like to use it? What did you use to capture it?ReplyDelete
Thanks, everybody, for all the comments and emails - keep 'em comin'! I've updated the post above to address some of the questions I've received and will try to post the sources of the info this weekend.ReplyDelete
Hey Karl, I just wanted to let you know that this Power Point made such a great impression on me that I decided to show it to my students on the first day of class.ReplyDelete
It was amazing! Thank you so much!
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.ReplyDelete
(I removed my previous post because I found an error and didn't know how to edit it)ReplyDelete
I loved your power point presentation. It was the most chilling and thought-provoking presentation we saw all week. Thank you for inspiring us. Wow!
Great presentation... I feel that statistics and data, like you present makes the issues we deal with in tech integration come to the forefront to the average person!
Thanks for bringing them together for all of us!
Thaks for a great presentation. It is a big help as I remix too. I am working on the did you know concept to help everyone focus on 21st century as different from 20th century and then discussing what does it mean....Anyway one reason for this comment is to spread some interesting news ( I couldn't fihure out how to e-mail you lol). Today in my local paper there was a front page story that invited the public to become reporters via the web and the paper will publish the best in the print edition. There is a link to the story on my blog. This is not a one time thing but a whole new way of dealing with local news. What an opportunity. I 'd love your thoughts on the implications.
I've been showing this presentation to everyone I know but in education and in the business world. We were wondering how your teachers responded to it. What was the reaction and feedback?
You can see some of their reactions to it in the comments above (a few of those are from some of my teachers). In general, I think it accomplished its intended purpose - to get them thinking about the world our students are entering and what we should be doing to help them prepare for it. There's was also some fear and worry, of course, especially by teachers with young children. Quite a few shared it with their spouses and relatives, some with their classes, and my principal is thinking about showing it at Back to School Night next week (we'll see if that happens).
My fear is that now that school has started up, it too easily fades into the background. There's so much to do each day in the actual practice of teaching that I worry that the "big picture" will get lost. That's what my staff development is about - to try to get them to focus on the big picture. To change their classrooms in ways that help prepare kids to be successful in the 21st century, not the 20th. My hope is that with 49 teachers participating in the staff development (in two cohorts) that we will attain a critical mass of teachers in our building really focusing on both the what and the why of what they are doing in their classrooms and what our students need.
I'd be curious as to the reactions of the folks you have showed it to as well.
I used your slide show as the backbone, thanks for the updates, I'll include the changes. I will also send my changes to you for my district. I shared this with the administrative team and they loved it and asked that I share it on the first day of school. So, thanks to you for the backbone and the inspiration. I'll share after round 2.
Thank so much for this wonderful presentation. We have been conducting a 3 day technology integration institute. I changed a few slides so that it would be more appropriate to our school district.It is on the agenda for our next administrative meeting.ReplyDelete
Incredible. Karl, your work and choice of music is perfect. The message hit my husband hard as well (he's not an educator). Like others, I would love to have the sources of your data so that I can share with my superintendent. Thank you for putting this so well. Amd many thanks to Aaron Smith for sharing it with Discovery Educators.ReplyDelete
It's just amazing to me that Jannita posted this on her blog for the Discovery Educator Network tonight because I am preparing a Back To School presentation for a very large groups of teachers. You said everything I was trying to put into words. May I have your permission to use it this Saturday? My audience are elementary and middle school teachers who are coming to Wannado City, an entrepreneurial park, that really understands that we have to empower our students to be their own boss. I'd love to pass this on to the teachers with your permission to the Discovery Educators in South Florida.
Theresa - sources are available for download above.ReplyDelete
Karen - yes, anyone is welcome to use it.
Thanks Karl. Just wanted to say well done and that I showed it to several of my 8th grade American history classes in Liberty, Missouri. It really started some great discussions. I also shared it with the teachers at my school.ReplyDelete
Karl - this is AWESOME!!! I am actually writing a curriculum for a new class "History and the Future" at my site and if you don't mind, I would love to show this as an intro - it is EXACTLY what I am trying to convey with my class. Your research was right on, and I like the Friedman references. I think kids will like this perspective! Kudos!ReplyDelete
I wrote about my experience with your .ppt over on my blog- thank you so much for your generosity in sharing this with us. It was also a great example to my administration that good thing can come from blogging. They are so afraid of blogging due to the media reports of SN sites like myspace, that when I say I got this from a blog- it makes them think! I love it!!!ReplyDelete
Karl, thanks for sharing this - I've remixed it into a version for our parents as we are having a Technology Information night next week. I appreciated it in ppt format as I could edit it to suit my audience, which can't be easily done once in wmv or other easy play formats. I didn't change any of the content - just omitted anything that was US specific to maintain relevance to my Australian audience. I also edited the reference to your daughter and changed it to my youngest son! Keep sharing!!!ReplyDelete
Teaching Generation Z
This information is great. Will Richardson also spoke about similar ideas at the Discovery Educator Network Regional Institute this summer. Thanks for sharing!ReplyDelete
I'm a senior at Arapahoe, and I've now seen this powerpoint several times. I thought I would add in a student's point of view. At the end of each powerpoint, the class was dead silent. Personally, I was so stunned that I feel horribly ignorant. I'm living a pretty sheltered life here in Centennial, so I think this was quite an eye-opener. Our class had an fascinating discussion afterwards, and I'm excited to see what this year will be like.
I'm glad you found the presentation interesting and are looking forward to this year (although I'm sorry you had to watch it multiple times).
I don't think you need to feel bad about being "ignorant." In the truest sense of that word, that simply means you didn't know about this stuff (hence the title of the presentation). Now you know, so now you can educate yourself about the pieces that you want to know more about. And that's what education is all about (or at least should be).
Karl and all, it is me again. I presented the slide show to the entire staff, it was powerful and you could hear a pin drop in the room while the show was playing. Thanks so much for your inspiration and allowing this to be modified for our school. I'll find a way to send the modified version to you, or it will be posted on my blog soon. http://www.wocsdtechtalk.blogspot.comReplyDelete
Facinating. I hope to edit and use this in a future presentation to fellow teachers at my elementary school. I was struck by the mention of GRANT funding which seems to be how education gets most of it's technology. That and rehabbed government castoffs!ReplyDelete
What has really struck me is how you have impacted so many through your sharing of this powerful presentation. Here we are - educators and students from around the globe all benefitting from your inspiration. Very cool. The fact that you share your work freely is a tribute to you and to all educators who understand that we need to collaborate and inspire each other. We are our own best support group in a time where Shift Happens! I sincerely appreciate your wisdom and your willingness to share.ReplyDelete
I will be a fan of your blog and will share your insights with as many teachers as possible!
Jan Wee, Discovery Educator Field Manager
I am amazed at the info contained in this presentation...It is exponentially important to address the needs, designs, and even the future-based nonexistant technologies that will, and now are pre-needed to ensure the success of our current and future students...It's a wild ride, and an ever-cognizant one as well...Wild only begins to describe it...ReplyDelete
Thanks from Sarasota, Florida. As a concerned parent and community education advocate your presentation was shared by one our Next Generation Learning teachers at a recent event. Since reform at this level takes pressure and support from outside the education community I've shared this presentation, with great impact, with business and community leaders throughout the community. As more see this the ground swell for reform will grow. Although all the ideas were out there you've "packaged" it in a way that makes delivery to the masses easy. KUDOSReplyDelete
I know it is redundant to just say ..... WOW... BUT WOW! I downloaded this the day you posted it, but just now had the time to watch it. I am going to share this with my department and my IT director. Great job at putting it all into perspective.ReplyDelete
Thanks so much for remixing this information. I plan to use it in my next Seattle Community Colleges Faculty Development Podcast which I produce every week. Bravo!ReplyDelete
I just wanted to thank you for putting together the 'Did You Know' slide show. I have heard David Warlick speak so I was familiar with some of his ideas, but your powerpoint put them together in a powerful way. I recommend investigating the ideas of Willard Daggett, who also is sounding the alarm of our future global position.
Anyway - your slide show provided a great vehicle to get in front of my faculty as a catalyst for invigorating our next iteration of technology integration.
Thank you very much for putting it together!
Thanks so much for posting this. It represents a lot of time and I especially appreciate the citation page. I am going to use it to just run at the beginning of a workshop I am doing for the TCEA (Texas Computer Educator's Association) conference in February.ReplyDelete
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A very well researched, powerful, and thought-provoking presentation. One thought: All instances of "drift" may not be quite as rapid as implied. For example, although the amount of new technical information produced may double within a 2-year period this does NOT mean that what a student may have learned in the first 2 years on the way to a 4-year degree is outdated. New information doesn't necessarily lead to new knowledge (this distinction is critical) and new information does not completely supplant the earlier sources upon which it is based. The student does, however, need to constantly monitor information in his/her field, and know how to determine the best sources (critical thinking) Teaching how to do this is where the "shift" of emphasis needs to be in education. Thank you for beginning the conversation so well!ReplyDelete
Terrific slides. I've been showing it to everyone I can in the business community since colleague Mike Neiss told me about it last week. Coincidentally I was in Littleton a few months ago consulting to Lockheed Martin folks. They would eat it up, by the way, if they don't already know about it. Good luck!
Hi there! I came across a link to your "Did You Know?" through the zefrank forum.ReplyDelete
I am a teacher too. Philosophy is where I want to use it. I have to figure out how to burn it to DVD though. And well, you know how funding is. I can score a DVD player from the media center but not a smart board or a the right TV hook up.
Anyway, I really appreciate the work ad I think it will go over like mad with the kids.
You may have covered all of these details within the comments but I have to get up in 4 hours to teach (the last day before the blasted tests with three bomb threats behind us this week so far. Ahhhh, Spring!) So I will be back here to see if there is anything I should know.
Sheesh! I should ask permission! I am sorry. May I show your project to my philosophy class? Please? Oh, come on! Don't make me beg. I'll cry.
Once again thank you. Great video!
You know I had to open an account here to comment right? That has to be worth something.
Boo - you are welcome to use/modify it however you'd like. And please don't cry or we'll have to change your display name to Boo-hoo.ReplyDelete
What a powerful presentation! At United Way, we're developing compelling stories around Educational Preparedness, Economic Stability and Basic Needs. Yours provides a wonderful model we hope to replicate in some way. Thanks for sharing with the world. www.uwsem.orgReplyDelete
Can I study In you class!!
though a lot of this is read here and there in different books, But as a capsule it hits you like crazy!!
yeah shif happens!!
Sorry, I found it to be a pointless string of stats, some dubious with an overblown soundtrack.ReplyDelete
Is this supposed to be some pro-globalist screed? There is the overinflated sense of importance that is belied by the utter lack of a point. Yes, we all know that China and India have a ton of people and that many of them are smart. Yeah, the UK was the shit in 1900. Whoopee, technological change has happened and is continuing to happen, and the job market sucks, but I guess the video is telling us we are wrong if we want to work fewer than 12 jobs by age 38?
That's the sense I get from this video, it's trying to say that those of us who still want to push for things like job security, protections for American industries and jobs, decent pay and benefits, etc. are just a bunch of luddites, because after all "Shift Happens", and if you're just clever enough to understand the immensity of the whole global technological revolution, why there will be nothing to worry about.
Is your point that the world is much more competitive, and we need to be better educated to adapt to the competition and new technologies? Why is something so obvious supposed to be so profound?
I'm more concerned with alleviating the massive negative effects globalization (use of overseas scabs) is having on everyday working people here in the states. What you're talking about may (or may not) benefit your teen students in the future job market they'll be entering, but will it keep them off the streets when their parents' jobs are offshored? How many of them already have second mortgages to pay for retraining for jobs that are being taken by cheap foreign labor?
There are a great many problems being caused by the global scab market that simply cannot be addressed by workers attaining more education every time they become obsolete.
Scott, Seiko, Richie and Jojo - Many of those ideas were certainly part of the conversations we had among my staff. This was a conversation starter, not the entire conversation, and was originally intended just for my staff.ReplyDelete
I would suggest, however, that your tone is not very helpful for the conversation. I’ve had literally thousands of emails and comments, and yours is in the top five in terms of being rude. You can disagree and offer other points to consider without being obnoxious and profane. We expect more from our high school students – and get it – so I would expect more from you. If you want to influence the folks that you engage in conversation, being insulting, rude and profane is probably not going to help your cause.
This comment has been removed by the author.ReplyDelete
We enjoyed your video: “Did you know; Shift Happens”. It does a great job of delivering a message that we have been observing as the basis of our investment thesis for some time: the emergence of a truly global economy is a very strong force. In our own way, we here at US Global Investors have been doing what we can to open folks eyes to this Shift. When our investment team, led by Frank Holmes, appear on CNBC or other media outlets, they are often quizzed about facts and fiction with regard to the economic emergence of Chindia. We’re so impressed with your message that we would like to include the presentation in a blog kept by our CEO, Frank Talk at www.usfunds.com. Thank you for sharing your perspectives and work with us!
In addition, we’d like to invite you, your students, or any of your interested blog visitors to join us for a webcast: “The Rise of the Chinese Consumer”, scheduled for today, Thursday, June 7th at 4:30 EST. Here is the link:
Not sure if you're waiting on permission but, if so, feel free to share it on the blog.
Just wanted to drop by and say hi.ReplyDelete
When you get a chance, do visit my blog as well.
Thanks for shairing this valuable information. Its really worthwhile reading.ReplyDelete
Web Site Design - SEO Expert
"Yes, this is though-provoking" I am amazed at all the misinformation. Yup, lots of people in China... been that way a long time. I'd say that is not a shift. I am not a teacher but a computer tech, and I can say most of the technology related slides are wrong. Effective cost to migrate to terrabit fiber is ZERO!?!??! LIES... I need to start printing T-shirts that say "CHUMP" Seriously... BF (before google) we picked up a magazine at the supermarket to see what Britney is doing. Same goes for all the other google searches, mostly likely porn or news.ReplyDelete
Before you share this propaganda with our children or staff, please independently research it.
There are no 100$ laptops (try 400$) They're not going to make 100 million of them a year (try 650 thousand). They can expect to make a trillion of them... but it doesn't make it so. Also read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100%24_laptop at the bottom, effective use of $
I'm all for technology, but pull your heads out of the sand. The web is great when you don't find something and take it as fact. I feel sorry for any tech savvy or .... critically thinking parent that saw this and thought "and my child goes to school here?"
P.S. If you take the 25% most intelligent krill, that's greater than the population of (insert scare target here)
-just my addition to the 1.5 - 40? exabytes of "new" "information."
@Bounty - Well, I'm not sure you added much to the discussion, but let me mention a few things and see if that helps. I would suggest that you read through a few more things before rejecting all of this. There is certainly room for dicussion - and there has been - but you added very little to it.ReplyDelete
China - the shift is that these folks are now becoming part of the global economy whereas they weren't before. That's quite a shift. Yes, there are tons of issues in China, but it's worth taking a look at.
Fiber - from what I've read, there is very little cost right now to change the switches on the end of the fiber, hence the marginal cost being effectively $0 (in comparison to the huge expense of laying the fiber). Eventually that fiber will have to be replaced, but right now that appears to be the case.
Before Google - you simply missed the point completely.
$100 laptops - the figures were a direct quote from Negroponte. That was in June 2006. Certainly it hasn't scaled as much as he would've hoped, but I wrote it the way it was at the time. And the price of the laptop is currently under $200, not $400. And the point - and the trend - is the same.
25% - again, just pointing to the "flattening" of the world and the folks in Russia, China, India and other places that are entering the global playing field. You don't have to agree with Friedman to agree that there is a shift occurring and - just possibly, that might change the way we look at things.
Now, reasonable people can disagree and discuss this - that was kind of the point. But your tone and rudeness is something we would not expect - nor accept - from our high school students. So I would ask that if you decide to comment again, you do it in a more constructive fashion.
Beautiful presentation. I received it from a friend, and it came with a soundtrack. What is the source of the soundtrack? You are probably annoyed that they made you remove it from your site (I am, too, frankly). But still, just curious...ReplyDelete
This might be valuable for Shift 3.0. You didn't get into Artificial Intelligence at all.
Computer Writes 200,000 Books, Man Takes Credit [Ai]- http://gizmodo.com/379388/computer-writes-200000-books-man-takes-credit
I looked at some of the “books.”
$795 for this one.
He has 85,000 entries at Amazon. Many are real (though esoteric to me and obscure sounding) medical texts. Some are those referenced on the video. http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_pg_2?ie=UTF8&rs=1000&rh=n%3A1000%2Cp%5F27%3APhilip%20M.%20Parker&page=2
A note about him. (incidentally also a note about the tagging game on google images. !!!! Don’t try this at work, it is way too addicting)
I guess New York Times lends (a degree) of credibility http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/14/business/media/14link.html?em&ex=1208318400&en=5be22877da9dbc99&ei=5087%0A
Maybe it’s for real. If it is, it will certainly change the way we think about the organization and intimation of information. Interesting to me to remember the Shift videos on YouTube. The ethos there depended on books being written by humans. Not sure if they planned on computers organizing all of this info. But, really… how could a human even begin to try to sift through Terabytes of information?
Intriguing, considering our field of employ, that he is taking this same computer organized data and “teaching” it using AI/CGI. As AI improves its ability to relate to humans and emulate our attributes, flaws, idiosyncrasies and emotions, will we notice any difference in who is delivering this when we take our classes and fill the seats in the lecture hall of Second Life? Will we care? Maybe WE will, but what about the next two generations? What is the value of an educator? Is it higher than an AI/CGI with light-speed access to all of the data in the entire world and the ability to summarize it, categorize it and hypothesize about it?... Oh and you could pick a “professor” with …uh… features that keep your attention.
Daniel Segura, Delta College, MI
A Very powerful presentation. It certainly has me thinking of things from a different perspective. I have to admit that I found vers1.0 to be more powerful than the mark 2.0 version as, at least for me, the added graphics took away some of the power in the statements.
Love you posts, your "Is it OK to be a technologically illiterate teacher" post has been a great source of debate amongst our graduate teaching class.
Two things wrong with it:ReplyDelete
1. The song ought to have been soothing so as to offer an ironically happy message. Something like "Somewhere Over the Rainbow," "Singing in the Rain" or "The Wells Fargo Wagon is a Comin' Down the Street, Oh, Please let it be for Me."
2. It ought to have ended with "Did You Know?". . . that in the 18th century there were 24 hours in a day. . .In the 19th century there were 24 hours in a day. . . In the 20th century there were 24 hours in a day. . . and in the 21st Century, guess how many hours there are in a day."
Absolutely brilliant! It's very helpful for parents. We must understand that hiding our heads in the sand regarding the influence and value of technology is not an option.ReplyDelete
Excellent ! no further words !! I received the movie file for "did you know" from my BOSS, then searched on Google to get me here, resulting into reading / watching "180 days" "what if" & "2020 vision". Even I am from R&D of automobile company, I found specially "did you know" very useful & made me think about :-) great work done. ThanksReplyDelete
I loved this video. This was absolutely wonderful! The information you provided was great. I've been repeating this information to everyone I've come across since I watched the video. Thank you so much for sharing this with the world!ReplyDelete
I really do appreciate all the information you've shared and opened me too. My views have changed a little and I'm inspired to read more of your blogs. I will defiantly spread all this new data I've learned.ReplyDelete
Hello, I was wondering if I could get by buying, downloading, etc. the video of Did you know 3.0? This is for a presentation for PepsiCo. By any chance could I get information of Karl Fisch to get in contact to see how can we arrange this?ReplyDelete
Thank you very much!
@Marcela - My email address is on the side of the blog if you'd like to contact me.ReplyDelete
Just saw the video.
Who is saying that the power of a $1,000 computer will be equal to the brain power of a human being in about twenty or thirty years?
What do they mean by that?
I found the youtube video interesting and thought provoking, but I would also have to say: "scary".
Concerning American education: Greenspan wrote in his book The Age of Turbulence that American education needs to focus on improvement and reform. He talks about this in chapter 21 of his book: Education and Income Inequality.
I don't believe he talks specifically about technology and education, but technology can cause significant changes, and I think Greenspan might agree that part of American investment in education needs to be investment in technology which can facilitate quality education.
I work for a large online tutoring company and they have a quote from Aristotle in the tutor resource area:
"All who have meditated on the art of governing humankind have been convinced that the fate of empires depends on the education of youth.”
Policymakers can consider that idea, in the overall balance, when looking to make policy.
Greenspan makes a similar point in saying that the return on investment on education is very much long term. If a first grader now is getting a good education, or a bad education that may play out economically twenty years down the road. But that doesn't mean you can ignore education from an economic point of view.
I think that many policymakers including President Obama agree that education needs to be a high priority.
Continuing my previous comment (to get around the 4,096 character limit)ReplyDelete
Your comment about how the top ten jobs in 2010 didn't exist before is rather "scary". Even if those exact job titles didn't exist probably similar jobs existed. After all, a lot of the early computer scientists got degrees in other fields, but they were skilled enough, and smart enough to pioneer computer science even though they had no specific training in it.
Donald Knuth got a Ph.D. in mathematics. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Knuth#Education_and_academic_work
Alan Perlis also got a Ph.D. in mathematics:
And John Tukey is now famous as a statistician which is today considered by some universities (perhaps most) to be a different field from mathematics. But he also got his degree in math.
The idea being that success in an endeavor depends (or should depend) on how smart you are, and how skilled you are, but not necessarily what your specific educational training was.
Although it is also true that success depends on many things.
If you are applying for a job your hiring should depend on well suited you are for that position.
Many of the business leaders in the IT field didn't even get degrees, or quit degree programs (e.g. Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Sergey Brin, Larry Page).
The fields of mathematics, physics, chemistry, and biology are well established and come from physical unchanging characteristic of the universe.
I think this is more true than technology (PHP/MySQL, C, C++, Python, etc.) which doesn't necessarily come as much from physical properties of the world.
Although I would confess that in my situation (and perhaps in others) they may be more lucrative than teaching or doing physics, biology, chemistry, or math.
This may have more to do with the specifics of my situation, and is not a public issue.
On the other hand, when I read Brad Schecter's book on Paul Erdos he writes about the Hungary of the early twentieth century. A high school teacher was considered a prestigious job in that culture, and at that point in time. He writes about a culture of education.
The result was people like Paul Erdos, Edward Teller, John von Neumann. People that turned out to be critical. Extremely critical.
On the other hand, Erdos as well as people like him were often marginalized, couldn't make a living, couldn't get funding, couldn't make it at universities.
Take a look at a book like Word Freak by Stefan Fatsis to see how many extremely intelligent people stand as counterexamples to the idea that intelligence correlates to economic output.
Of course you could find many people who are consistent with the hypothesis of intelligence and economic output. Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, Larry Ellison, Sergey Brin, and Larry Page would probably all score high on intelligence tests.
I agree with you that "shift happens". Perhaps the United States along with the rest of the world is realizing the need to reform, streamline, and change education.
@David Friedman - re: "Who is saying that the power of a $1,000 computer will be equal to the brain power of a human being in about twenty or thirty years?"That's not quite what it said, but sources are listed in the post.ReplyDelete
Nice to hear from you.
Yes, I have heard of Ray Kurzweil.
When I was an undegrad at University of Virginia my thesis advisor's brother talked about the singularity on his web page. I think that's when I first heard the idea. I believe he was a proponent or believer in the singularity.
And I had heard that Larry Page had started the Singularity University:
Wikipedia has an article on the singularity, and also discusses criticism of the idea:
I replayed this presentation four or five times over the past two years after first having seen it in class. It never fails to to impress. Thanks.ReplyDelete
Dear Karl, your presentation was inspiring and I did a post on it (sorry it is in portuguese) because I believe your data on the future jobs, even if it is not precise, is true. I gave some thought about it and, considering the brazilian case, where we have, for instance, a enormous lack of physics high school teachers, and then talking abou new carreers as biophysicists or nanobiologists might be strange, the thing is we will never stop needing the old professions, but many new ones will show up every year. Than, your new slide might be: "In 2010 there will be 10-14 new jobs that didn't exist in 2004". I hope you like the idea. Cheers, MauroReplyDelete
Dear Karl, It is 2020 and I have replayed your presentation periodically since I first saw it in Feb 2007. It provides a wake up call to the view of a global community. I work in the information field and it feels as though we are at another pivotal moment of dramatic growth and changes ahead. Thank you for making your presentation widely available. JudyReplyDelete