Update 4-14-07: For more thoughts about this, read 2020 Vision on DesignShare
This post - and resulting presentation - has been kicking around in my head for the last month or two. One of the difficulties I've encountered with our staff development efforts is being unable to define a specific vision for what the future is going to look like. While I have many ideas about the changes that are occurring - and are going to occur - and the general direction we should head, I can't nail down specifically what school - or the world - is going to look like 5 or 10 or 15 years out. The pace of change is so great that it's nearly impossible to predict what's going to happen. And, for teachers that are used to the seemingly endless pendulum swings in education, that makes them hesitant to commit.
So what I wanted to create was some kind of plausible "vision" of the future that they could ponder and discuss. As I write this, I realize that I've created a trilogy of sorts. The "What If" presentation was a look at the past, at the resistance to change in education. The "Did You Know" presentation was mainly a look at our present, at the incredible changes that are happening due to "flat world" factors and technological change (with a dash of prediction thrown in). And now "2020 Vision" is a look "back" at our future from the year 2020. (Ummm, yeah, sure, I planned to create a trilogy. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.) Maybe by having one possible version of the future to consider we can get past the natural resistance to change. If nothing else, I hope it's another example of David Warlick's "telling the new story" to get those conversations started.
I've thought about this for a couple of months because I never felt like I had all the pieces of the story to create a really good "future." I still don't, but I decided I was never going to have enough time - or enough creativity - to get exactly what I wanted, and I didn't want to wait any longer because I think this conversation needs to take place now. (Plus, things kept happening - like Google buying YouTube - so I kept having to come up with new ideas!) So, the presentation includes some "predictions" about technology, and some "predictions" about changes in my school, as I speak at the graduation for the class of 2020 (hey, it's my future, I can pretend can't I?) - who will be starting Kindergarten next fall. But let me be clear that I am not predicting that these things will actually occur. While I think they are generally plausible, things are changing so quickly that it's next to impossible (for me, anyway) to predict with any kind of accuracy. And I think this is a case of where the truth will end up being stranger than fiction. Let me also be clear that this "future" is not necessarily what I would like to see happen, although there are pieces of it that I would certainly be in favor of. The goal is not to debate the plausibility of any specific predictions, but to envision a time in the not-too-distant future when the world is significantly different - and hopefully schools are as well. Then, based on what that could look like, what should we be doing now to help prepare for and transition to that future. Hopefully this "2020 Vision" will help get those conversations started.
This is intended for my staff development efforts but, of course, anyone is welcome to use it (or, better yet, create your own). While I don't have any sources for this (since it's made up), there were lots of influences. The three most prominent ones would be the EPIC video , Will Richardson's Morning at RSS-Blog-Furl High School Redux post as well as his book , and Ray Kurzweil's book.
Download 2020 Vision (Windows Media Player format - 17 MB) - the volume kicks in on the third slide.
Download 2020 Vision (Quicktime format - 97 MB).
Be forewarned, it's a little long, but that's a small price to pay to see the future . . .
Update 11-28-06: I had a request to post this to Google Video, so I did. That also allows me to embed it in this post. This is the first time I've tried this, so we'll see how it goes.
Update 11-29-06: I added a Quicktime version since someone pointed out that the Windows Media Player version requires codecs that are only available on the Windows platform (although I believe the Google Video version embedded above - which is in Flash - should work on most platforms). Sorry about that.
Update 6-21-08: Here's the script I used (Word, PDF). No guarantees that I stuck to it exactly, but it should be close.
Update 6-21-08: Here's the script I used (Word, PDF). No guarantees that I stuck to it exactly, but it should be close.